The war in the Middle East is real. The oil shock is real. But Sierra Leone’s fuel price hike was a policy choice, and the numbers from our neighbors prove it.
Open Letter to the Government of Sierra Leone
The war in the Middle East is real. The oil shock is real. But Sierra Leone’s decision to raise fuel prices on March 7, 2026, was not inevitable. It was a choice. The numbers from our neighbours prove it.
This letter is for the Government of Sierra Leone. It is also for the Ministry of Finance and the National Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NPRA). It includes every official who stood before a microphone. They pointed to the Strait of Hormuz as justification for what happened on March 7, 2026.
We acknowledge the war. On February 28, 2026, US-Israeli airstrikes ignited a conflict with Iran that sent shockwaves through the global energy market. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies transit through this strait. This action drove international crude prices above $100 a barrel. Sierra Leone imports every litre of petroleum it consumes. We understand that global disruptions carry real consequences for a country with no refining capacity and no strategic energy buffer.
We know all of this. And we still say: the decision to raise petrol pump prices from NLe28.50 to NLe32.00 per litre was not inevitable. It was a choice. The evidence is sitting right there in the data, if anyone in government cared to look.
What the Numbers Say
Between March 2 and March 21, governments across Africa faced the same shock Sierra Leone faced. This occurred in the immediate weeks after the outbreak of conflict. The same oil price spike. The same disrupted shipping lanes. The same war. Here is how they responded:
| Kenya | 0% increase — price controls held firm |
| South Africa | ~1% increase |
| Ethiopia | Introduced fuel subsidies |
| Ghana | 10–17% increase |
| Sierra Leone | 12.3% increase — passed directly to citizens |
| Nigeria | 48–65% increase (no price controls since 2023) |
Kenya has a much larger population, higher fuel demand, and more complex logistics. Yet, Kenya did not raise its pump price at all. Ethiopia, one of Africa’s most fuel-import-dependent economies, chose to cushion its citizens with subsidies rather than transfer the shock wholesale. These are not wealthy governments. They are governments that decided to absorb some of the pain. This was a deliberate policy choice, rather than passing all of it on. Sierra Leone’s government made the opposite decision. Then it used the war as the explanation.
“The global shock is real. But how a government responds to a shock is a policy choice, not a law of nature.”
— The Thinking Crowd
The Questions Nobody Is Asking
The Information Minister told the public that the price increase was necessary to secure petroleum supplies on the international market. The APC told the public it was really about taxes on oil marketing companies. Civil society called it unjustifiable and appealed to the IMF to intervene. All of these positions are political performances. None of them answers the questions that actually matter. What is Sierra Leone’s petroleum pricing formula? The NPRA reviews and sets prices based on a formula that is barely explained to the public. Civil society analysts have directly questioned the March 7 formula. They say it does not match actual movements in international prices. We want to see the formula. We want to see the calculation. A 12% price hike is significant in a country where fuel costs influence commercial vehicle charges. It also affects what a market trader pays to restock and what a family spends to cook their evening meal. What happened to the Petroleum Fund? Sierra Leone has had a mechanism for a long time, in theory, for building a buffer. This buffer is meant to protect against exactly this external shock. Where is that buffer? Why, every time there is a global oil shock, does the government’s only tool a price hike? Why is Sierra Leone more exposed than Kenya? It is not geography. It is not demand. It is not because the war hit us harder. We have not built the fiscal buffers over the years. We also lack price stabilization mechanisms. Additionally, we did not create strategic reserves. These elements would have provided us with options when a crisis arrives. Kenya has options. We apparently do not. That is not Terhan’s fault.
On Petty Politics
The SLPP government defended the hike. The APC attacked it. Commentary flooded Facebook and WhatsApp with partisan heat and very little light. And within days, the national conversation had moved on to something else. This is Sierra Leone’s real energy crisis — not oil, but attention. We waste enormous political energy deciding which party lies less. We focus almost none on the structural questions that would actually protect ordinary people from the next shock. And there will be a next shock. There always is. The Iran war will end, as wars do. Oil prices ease. The headlines will move on. Yet, the conditions that made Sierra Leone so vulnerable will stay the same. The country is fully dependent on imports and has opaque pricing mechanisms. There is no cushion for citizens, and the political class invests more in blame than in solutions.
What We Are Asking For
This is not a call for cheap fuel at any cost. Subsidies have their dangers, and a country with a fragile fiscal position cannot simply absorb every external shock indefinitely. We understand the economics. What we are asking for is something more basic: honesty and competence. Publish the pricing formula. Independent economists should verify that the March 7 adjustment reflects the movement in international prices. It should not reflect additional tax recovery on the back of a convenient global crisis. Start discussing strategic petroleum reserves. We should also talk about price stabilization funds. Determine what it would take to give Sierra Leone even a 30-day buffer against supply disruptions.And stop reaching for an overseas war every time prices need to go up. The war in the Middle East is real. But the absence of a plan is entirely homegrown.
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